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What's So "Cryptic" About Trading Cryptocurrencies?

Lots and lots. Trading is not easy, period. But a few things can help.

By Elliott Wave International

Here's a cool parlor trick: If you want to bring a loud, rowdy room to a screeching silence, ask if anyone can explain how cryptocurrencies work.
Cue crickets chirping.

Turns out, the "crypto" part of the name originally signified the encrypted nature of digital assets and their anonymous owners. But it's proven foretelling, as cryptocurrencies have become synonymous with a cryptic impenetrability the likes of which no modern mainstream financial market -- especially not one so fervently embraced -- has known.

Even the experts are stumped by the exact logistics involved in cryptocurrencies, as these recent opinions suggest:

• "[Cryptocurrencies] are volatile by nature and thus don't follow traditional rules and conventions." (May 22 Coindiary.net)
• "The public's fascination with cryptocurrencies is tied to a sort of mystery, like the mystery of the value of money itself, consisting in the new money's connection to advanced science. (May 21 The Guardian)

That's the bad news.
But we're happy to bring you the good news; namely: You don't have to understand how cryptocurrencies work in order to forecast them.
For Elliotticians, the ultimate skeleton key to unlocking the mystery price moves of cryptocurrencies is Elliott wave analysis. After all, cryptos, like any other market, are traded in the open marketplace, where big groups of buyers and sellers try to outsmart each other, bidding prices up or down. Whenever large groups of people engage in collective activities, group psychology emerges. And few other market-forecasting tools are as good at predicting changes in market psychology as Elliott waves.
Our new, in-depth report titled "Crypto Trading Guide: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity" tells you more.
Here's an excerpt from chapter one:

Strategy #1: Stand Apart from the Crowd's "Madness"

The 2013 Amazon Finance bestseller, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading, states,

"If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined forecasting methodology -- a simple, clear, and concise way of looking at markets to predict what's coming. Guessing or going on gut instinct won't work over the long run.

"If you don't have a defined methodology, then you don't have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal."

For thousands professional and individual traders around the world, that methodology is the Elliott Wave Principle. If you're new to it, you can summarize its basic tenets as follows:

• Group psychology swings from excessive optimism to pessimism, and back again
• In the markets, group psychology forms repeating patterns in price charts
• Because these price patterns repeat, they are also predictable

Once you know which of the 13 known Elliott wave patterns your market is in, you can make a probability-based forecasts as to what's next."

But what about using this methodology on actual cryptocurrency price charts?
Well, let's pick the world's largest and first-established market, Bitcoin. On July 12, Bitcoin was eight days into a pernicious losing streak with no obvious relief in sight. Wrote one July 12 news source:
"Bitcoin is spiraling downwards, and this time the downside seems unstoppable." (FX Street)
But for our Cryptocurrency Pro Service team, a very telling price pattern emerged front and center on Bitcoin's chart: an Elliott third wave. On July 12, Cryptocurrency Pro Service prepped the bullish stage and wrote:

"A swift move up through 6390.04 will add confidence to the idea wave (ii) has bottomed and Bitcoin is headed higher. A third-wave advance, wave (iii) should eventually see Bitcoin trade well above 7000.00."

The next chart moves forward in time and shows how Bitcoin's prices rose, in-line with the Elliott wave rally scenario:

Here's a New Crypto Report for Your Visitors

Crypto Trading Guide:

5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity

The key to success in cryptos is to approach this wild market in a way that insulates you from the hype, frenzy and rumors -- and helps you act when others flounder.
How? By using a proven market-forecasting methodology that can analyze price trends in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin objectively and clearly.
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have created a new resource to help your cryptos trading entitled 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity.
This free crypto trading guide will help you learn:

• The pattern that allows you to anticipate big reversals
• What sentiment does at extremes and how to recognize it
• How to spot the rare feature that precedes a market turn

…and more.
Get instant access now -- for free -- at elliottwave.com.

Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern?

Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern?
You be the judge...

By Elliott Wave International

Let's cut right to the chart below. The shaded triangle highlights the dramatic price action in crude oil prices on August 15, when crude plummeted 3% to its lowest level in over nine weeks.
Now, according to the mainstream experts, the number one catalyst for crude's collapse was a shockingly bearish same-day Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report, marked with the orange arrow in the bottom right of the chart.
What made the report so bearish was the fact that analysts forecast a 2.5 million decrease in oil stockpiles in the week ending August 10, while the EIA data showed a 6.8 million-barrel increase! Wrote one August 15 news source: "Crude Oil Prices Slammed by Surprise U.S. Inventories Build." (Seeking Alpha)
It's a perfect fit -- in the popular, news-moves-markets model, that is. The market was expecting one thing and got the complete opposite. Cue brutal selloff.
The problem with that model, however, is that it does investors and traders no favors. At best, it offers convenient explanations for price moves -- after they've already occurred.
Let's go back to the chart and consider the other arrow, the blue one labeled EWP, for the Elliott Wave Principle.
On August 14 -- one day before the bearish EIA report was released -- our Energy Pro Service identified a bearish Elliott wave setup on crude oil's price chart. There, Energy Pro Service editor Steve Craig outlined the most probable course for crude oil in the days ahead:

"Crude should be in the final leg of a countertrend advance, be it wave ii, or the larger-degree wave ((ii)). Resistance above the 68.37 intraday high is around 68.48 and then 69.11. On the downside, trade below 67.38 would offer an aggressive hint that a downward reversal is underway... the key point is that the larger trend is down."

What happened next?
The chart below sums it up best: Crude oil finished its wave ii and hit the skids in the 3% selloff on August 15.

Elliott wave analysis posits that the main driver of market trends is investor psychology, which unfolds as Elliott wave patterns directly on price charts.
These patterns are measurable and predictable, so they enable Elliotticians to anticipate future price moves -- before they arise.
If you are prepared to take the next step in educating yourself about the basics of the Wave Principle -- access the FREE Online Tutorial from Elliott Wave International.
The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive online course with the same content you'd receive in a formal training class -- but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like!
Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why Oil Prices Fell -- Stockpiles or Price Pattern?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Moving Averages Help You Define Trend – Here’s How

This simple moving average "works equally well in commodities, currencies, and stocksquot;

By Elliott Wave International

The "moving average" is a technical indicator of market strength which has stood the test of time.
Over 30 years ago, Robert Prechter described this indicator in his essay, "What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful." What he said then remains true today:

...a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.

So, what is a moving average?

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Learn How You Can Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages
Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Learn how to apply them to your trading and investing with this free 10-page eBook from Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy.
Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now.

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Elliott Wave International's Jeffrey Kennedy, a 25-year veteran of technical analysis, provides an answer:

A moving average is simply the average value of data over a specified time period, and it is used to figure out whether the price of a stock or commodity is trending up or down.

One way to think of a moving average is that it's an automated trend line.

Kennedy offers an array of examples and insights about moving averages in the instructive guide, "How to Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages." Below, you see some of Kennedy's charts.
Let's begin with the most commonly-used moving averages among market technicians: the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. These two trend lines often serve as areas of resistance or support, levels the market needs to "respect" in order for the trend to continue.
For example, the circled areas in the chart below show you where the 200-period SMA provided resistance in the DJIA's rally back in April-May (top circle), and the 50-period SMA provided support (lower circle):

Let's look at another widely used simple moving average which "works equally well in commodities, currencies, and stocks," according to Kennedy: the 13-period SMA.
In the sugar chart below, prices first crossed above the red SMA line, which led to a substantial rally. The circled area shows you the first time the price crossed below the SMA, which came to indicate a change in trend from bullish to bearish:

Kennedy's "How to Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages" also informs you about a useful tool to help you avoid "whipsaws."
Indeed, the first two chapters reveal:

• The Dual Moving Average Cross-Over System
• Moving Average Price Channel System
• Combining the Crossover and Price Channel Techniques

Jeffrey Kennedy's insights are all about making you a better trader.
Learn How You Can Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages
Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Learn how to apply them to your trading and investing with this free 10-page eBook from Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy.
Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now

Dreaming of a "Comfortable Retirement" on a Public Pension?

A 9-year bull market fails to close the pension gap

By Elliott Wave International

Did you realize that many U.S. pension funds are in trouble even though stocks have been rising since 2009?
Even so, many retirees expect a comfortable retirement.

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Jump on once-in-a-lifetime opportunities and avoid dangerous pitfalls that no one else sees coming. We can help you prepare for opportunities and side step risks that will surprise most investors. You can get deeper insights in Elliott Wave International's new free report: 5 "Tells" that the Markets Are About to Reverse. The insights that you'll gain are especially applicable to the price patterns of key financial markets, including the stock market, now. Read the free report now.

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Our March 2018 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast showed this chart and said:

Over the last 20 years, [a University of Michigan] poll asked the following question every month: "Compared to five years ago, do you think the chances that you will have a comfortable retirement have gone up, gone down or remained about the same?" Considering that the line between a better and worse retirement is a reading of 100, consumers have been mostly glum about their retirement prospects since the record optimistic extreme of 123 in November 2000.... After stocks had been rising for five years... the survey's results pushed to a high of 105 in February 2007.... The chart shows retirees' negative responses as stocks crashed in 2008 and early 2009....

In March of 2017, retirees finally capitulated once again to the uptrend in share prices by registering a response of 104.... Last month, the survey even pushed to a 17-year extreme of 109.

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