Inflazione Italia sale al 2.9 % in ottobre dal 2.5% di settembre

 

FreePass are a $411 value

 

Stocks couldn't care less about a "strong economy," or anything else on that list, either.

If anyone raises an eyebrow at that, ask them to explain how in March 2020, when the economy was literally shut down and people were collectively freaked out, stocks bottomed and haven't looked back for a year and a half?

No, something else drives the stock market. From our 40-plus years' experience, we know exactly what it is: Investor psychology. And we have a good idea where it's headed next.

Now through November 3, we're opening the doors to our flagship Financial Forecast Service.

Your readers get the best Elliott wave forecasts and analysis from the world's largest group of independent analysts.

This is our most popular forecasting service. It's won numerous awards; the analysts who write it are world-famous; it's what we're known for.

It's been in existence for more than 40 years.

All told, the elements in FreePass are a $411 value.

Here is what's included:

1. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. This service takes you through the ins and outs of 8 different major markets, with a U.S. focus, on a several-months timeframe.
2. The Elliott Wave Theorist. The inimitable Robert Prechter has authored this publication since he launched it in 1979. Each month The Theorist brings you a series of big-picture insights about the markets and mass psychology. There's no other publication like it in the world.
3. The Financial Forecast Short Term Update. Each Monday, Wednesday and Friday at the U.S. markets' close, this pub connects for you the intraweek happenings in the markets. Whether you're a swing trader, a long-term investor or something in between, this pub will help you time your moves.

This event is designed to help your readers get up to speed on the above publications fast. We've stretched FreePass out across 21 days, with multiple learning tools released along the way, so participants can get a real look inside the extraordinary Elliott wave method.

Want more info? See everything that’s included now >>

Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market

 

"I can measure the motions of bodies, but I cannot measure human folly."

By Elliott Wave International

Did you know that Sir Isaac Newton "lost his shirt" in the South Sea Bubble of the 1720s?

This great scientist and mathematician lost more than the equivalent of a million 2021 dollars.

Here's a brief description of Newton's investment actions from Robert Prechter's landmark book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:

[Sir Isaac Newton] invested a little bit early in the trend and "wisely" took a small profit. Watching the trend continue, he finally bet heavily and "wisely" held on for the long run. He eventually sold out at a near-total loss.

After this financial loss, Newton said:

"I can measure the motions of bodies, but I cannot measure human folly."

Newton's unfortunate investment story is instructive because it summarizes why stock market losses have been the norm among investors after a full market cycle.

In other words, investors are typically "timid traders early in a bull market and confident long term holders at the peak."

To drive the point home more starkly, let's look at how investors made out in a mutual fund over a 10-year period versus the performance of the fund during the same time span.

Let's start with this Dec. 31, 2009 Wall Street Journal quote:

The decade's best performing U.S. diversified stock mutual fund [is] Ken Heebner's $3.7 billion CGM Focus Fund, which rose 18.2% annually. ...

Here's a table of the mutual fund, showing the growth of an initial $100,000 investment:

As you can see, that initial investment more than quintupled in value as it grew at 18.2% annually, compounded. Quite a performance in a decade when the S&P 500 lost value.

Now, let's look at how much money investors in the fund made.

Let's return to that 2009 Wall Street Journal article:

The typical CGM Focus shareholder lost 11% annually in the 10 years ending Nov. 30. ...

Yes, you read that right.

Let's return to The Socionomic Theory of Finance for a look at another table of the mutual fund:

The average investor in CGM Focus Fund during that 10-year period turned $100,000 into $31,200 for a loss of 68.8%. That is 94% less than the growth of the money in the fund.

 

Why a Peak in Home Prices May Be Approaching

 

"Is it a good time to sell a house?"

By Elliott Wave International

Some people buy a house solely as an investment.

Others want a better place to live -- perhaps more room for a growing family. The investment part is secondary. However, even people in this category would likely hold off on a purchase if they had an indication that lower home prices were just around the corner.

Well, there is such an "indication."

First, a little historical context: In 2005, near the peak of the prior housing bubble, a University of Michigan survey asked participants, "Is it a good time to sell a house?"

In August, September and October of that year, a then-record high percentage of participants said "yes." Eight months later, in June 2006, U.S. home prices topped.

With that in mind, the September Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, explains what that same survey recently revealed:

[A] series of questions in the University of Michigan monthly sentiment survey tracks attitudes toward home prices. ... This chart shows affirmative responses to the question "Is it a good time to sell a house?" ... The latest reading of 48 is twice the peak reading at the end of the last housing boom. [This is] a more-than doubling from March to June of this year. [emphasis added]

AAPL and FANG+ (Free Report): '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes

  

 

Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks)

 

See "powerful evidence that the Fed is not in control of interest rates"

By Elliott Wave International

Most everyone is familiar with the phrase: "Keep your eye on the ball," which of course means -- focus on what really matters.

Those who seek clues about the direction of interest rates believe the "ball" is their nation's central bank.

For example, in the U.S., Federal Reserve announcements are the subject of countless financial headlines, like this one from Sept. 22 (Reuters):

Fed signals bond-buying taper coming 'soon,' rate hike next year

The assumption in most of these headlines is that the central bank determines the direction of rates.

However, if interest-rate observers kept their eye on what really matters, they'd be watching the bond market instead of the central bank. In other words, markets lead and central banks follow.

Sticking with the U.S., this chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's 2017 book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance, provide elaboration:

[The chart] plots T-bill rates and the effective federal funds rate (a weighted average of the federal funds rate across all banking transactions) from 1978 to 1984. T-bill rates peaked four times in 1980-1982. Each of those peaks occurred a month or more before subsequent and reactive peaks in the federal funds rate. The Fed's rate also lags at bottoms, as depicted on the chart at the lows of 1980, 1981 and 1982-3.

 

Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling?

 

July 2: "Bitcoin [is] at or near the end of [an Elliott wave] correction"

By Elliott Wave International

In early September, bitcoin hit a price level near $52,000 -- however, since then, the price has trended lower.

Indeed, on September 24 alone, the price of the cryptocurrency fell 5%.

The financial press pinpointed a supposed "cause":

Bitcoin and ether slide as China intensifies crackdown on cryptocurrencies

A China crackdown on cryptocurrencies seems like a logical "reason" for bitcoin's 5% slide, however, take a look at this next headline from the same financial website:

China's war on bitcoin just hit a new level with its latest crypto crackdown

You might say, "OK, it says pretty much the same thing as the first headline, what's the point?"

The point is: That second headline published on July 7 -- just two weeks before bitcoin hit a bottom near $29,000 and then rose to that price near $52,000 in early September.

In other words, China's stern measures against cryptocurrencies are nothing new and bitcoin prices have both risen and fallen during the crackdown.

Instead of relying on headlines, Elliott Wave International's head crypto analyst Tony Carrion uses the Elliott wave model to forecast cryptocurrencies.

Here's what he said in the July 2 Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50+ worldwide financial markets:

Our preferred count has been to consider the price action since the December 2018 low to be the subwaves of a [sizeable Elliott wave] advance.