mercredi 29 juin 2022

Technical Analysis: Why You Should Expect a Popularity Surge

 

Here's when a "rebirth of interest" in cycles and waves occurs

By Elliott Wave International

You probably know that the term "technical analysis" refers to analyzing the behavior of financial markets themselves -- such as the stock market -- as opposed to "fundamental" analysis, which is based on news and events outside of financial markets.

Well, in recent years, technical analysis has been out of favor.

A classic Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of financial markets and cultural trends, explains why:

When bear markets mature, technical analysis is all the rage. When bull markets mature, it is not even on investors' radar.

The stock market had been in a bull market for more than a dozen years so newsletters based on technical analysis have struggled. You might catch a market technician getting interviewed on financial television or for a print article here and there, but most interviewees offered "fundamental" analysis or external reasons for their market forecasts. You see, "fundamental" analysis tends to be popular when the stock market is rising because people feel that the "machine of society" and the market are linked and they're both humming along as they should. In bear markets, people start to feel that "fundamentals" failed them, so they turn to other forecasting tools.

This chart and commentary from Robert Prechter's landmark book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance, reveals how the popularity of financial theories have waxed and waned with the trend of the stock market:

The chart shows that in times of increasingly positive social mood -- such as the 1920s, the

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