Bitcoin contro dollaro scambiato sopra 20300

 Il Bitcoin contro dollaro è  scambiato a 20331 con un aumento  dell'1,80% rispetto alla precedente sessione di trading.

Borsa di Milano in rosso

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha ampliato le perdite, scendendo dello 0,89% a 21.631  mentre un'inflazione

FTSE MIB chiude in rosso a 21.825

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha annullato i guadagni iniziali per chiudere a 21.825 , segnando il terzo calo

FTSE MIB rimbalza di oltre l'1%

 L'indice FTSE MIB è salito di oltre l'1% e si è attestato al di sopra di 22.100, rimbalzando dopo che le

Indici azionari in europa in rimbalzo

 Gli indici azionari europei sti stanno , riprendendosi da un calo di due giorni che ha portato le principali

L'indice FTSE MIB chiude a 21.840 - 0,2%

 L'indice FTSE MIB è sceso dello 0,2% per chiudere a 21.840, recuperando dai minimi intraday di

FTSE MIB debole perde il livello di 21700

 L'indice FTSE MIB è sceso di oltre  l'1%, sotto la  quota 21.700 , estendendo il crollo della scorsa seduta

FTSE MIB è sceso del 2,5% per chiudere a 21.900

 L'indice FTSE MIB è sceso del 2,5% per chiudere a 21.900 , 

Why You Should Expect a Pickup in Stock-Market Volatility

 

"Traders are convinced the market volatility will remain subdued"

By Elliott Wave International

When things get quiet in a horror movie, that's when you need to really brace yourself. The monster or the killer will soon be on the scene.

That's a close enough analogy to what can happen in the stock market. Just when investors get comfortable with a stretch of low volatility -- wham! -- volatility picks up in a major way.

Back on Nov. 27, 2019, our U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, showed a chart titled "Calm Before the Craziness," and said:

The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) closed below 12.00 for the third straight session... In fact, investors are so complacent that, paradoxically, it signals a coming pick up in volatility.

About three months later, our Feb. 24, 2020 U.S. Short Term Update noted:

The VIX surged 69% intraday and is now up 130% since the November 26 low. The VIX should eventually move even higher as stocks prices work lower.

As you may recall, a hair-raising stock market decline that had started in mid-February continued to plummet into March 23 of that year.

What does this have to do with today?

This chart and commentary from our August 15, 2022 U.S. Short Term Update provides the answer:

We have inverted the scale to align the VIX with prices. The DSI Indicator (trade-futures.com)

FTSE MIB debole appena sopra la parità

Il FTSE MIB ha registrato un leggero  rialzo . In un contesto macroeconomico cupo in Europa, l'attenzione degli investitori è rivolta al discorso

FTSE MIB ha chiuso leggermenye positivo a 22.455

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha chiuso leggermente positovo a 22.455 giovedì, estendendo i guadagni di ieri

FTSE MIB debole in attesa della conferenza del presidente della FED di domani

 Il FTSE MIB ha registrato un primo rialzo in mattinata, grazie ai guadagni dei titoli energetici e al leggero

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs): Another Financial "Fumble"

 

NFTs have taken "a round trip to nowhere"

By Elliott Wave International

Tampa Bay Buccaneers' quarterback Tom Brady is a non-fungible token (NFT) enthusiast.

However, glory on the football field has not translated to this field of finance (Business Insider, August 8):

Tom Brady bought a Bored Ape NFT for $430,000 in April. He's lost at least $194,000 on it since then.

He paid 133 ether for it ... which is $235,436 right now. Its best offer is $136,034.

Brady formed his own NFT company in 2021 and is one of many celebrities who became enamored with cryptos.

Yet, celebrity endorsements of cryptos have not exactly had a stellar record. Examples include a 95% plummet in the average price of NFTs sponsored by boxer Mike Tyson, a slide of more than 75% in World of Women NFTs backed by movie star Reese Witherspoon and a big tumble in the price of Bitcoin since movie star Matt Damon appeared in video advertisements in October 2021. And the list goes on.

The Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, has been keeping subscribers apprised of cryptos. The July issue showed this chart and said:

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are [an] asset class that demonstrates investors' remarkable

lndice FTSE MIB in calo in un contesto di rinnovati timori di recessione

Il FTSE MIB  registra un leggero calo  dopo un guadagno dell'1% nella sessione precedente e in linea

FTSE MIB ha chiuso ì in rialzo dell'1% a 22.390

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha chiuso  in rialzo dell'1% a 22.390, recuperando parzialmente le forti perdite delle

FTSE MIB chiude in ribasso dell'1,6% a 22.165

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha chiuso in ribasso dell'1,6% a 22.165,, seguendo le altre borse, mentre la

Borsa di Milano in rosso

Il FTSE MIB è sceso di oltre l'1,5% ,sotto i 22200 perdite dei titoli legati all'energia

FTSE MIB ha chiuso in ribasso del 2% a 22.530

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha chiuso  in ribasso del 2% a 22.530, sottoperformando i suoi omologhi europei

The Final Act BEFORE a Housing Bubble Bursts

 

Here's a time-tested indicator of trend turns in financial markets

By Elliott Wave International

Financial history shows that feverish foreign buying of a financial asset usually marks the end of that asset's upward trend.

The reason why is that foreign buyers tend to enthusiastically jump on a trend after it's already run its course -- or nearly so.

You can find an example of this going as far back as Tulip Mania in Holland in the 1600s. But let's stick with history which goes back just a generation or so, namely, the commercial real estate boom of the late 1980s.

Japan's stock market had been racing higher and Japanese investors were pouring money into U.S. real estate. One of their prize purchases was Rockefeller Center in 1989. Mitsubishi paid $2 billion for this "Hope Diamond of world real estate." By 1995, Rockefeller Center went bankrupt and Mitsubishi lost its entire investment.

Another case in point is the U.S. stock market in 2007.

The August 2007 Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, showed this chart and said:

Foreigners jumped into the U.S. market like never before in May [2007]. The new record was a 

FTSE MIB ha chiude in rialzo dell'1% a 22.990,

 FTSE MIB ha chiuso in rialzo dell'1% a 22.990, annullando le perdite della scorsa sessione,

FTSE MIB ha annullato i guadagni iniziali e ha chiuso in ribasso dell'1% a 22.760

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha annullato i guadagni iniziali e ha chiuso in ribasso dell'1% a 22.760 ,

Borsa di Milano debole

L'indice FTSE MIB era salito sopra a  23.075 , sovraperformando le controparti europee

FTSE MIB ha chiuso in leggero rialzo a 23000

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha chiuso in marginale rialzo a 23.000 nel primo giorno di contrattazioni della

 

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Indice Borsa di Milano FTSE MIB leggermente sopra 23000

 L'indice FTSE MIB è salito  al di sopra dei 23.000 punti , 

Borsa di Milano chiude +0.5% a 22.970

 L'indice FTSE MIB è salito dello 0,5% e ha chiuso a 22.970 

Big Bitcoin Bets Burn This Firm: What's Next for the Cryptocurrency?

 

MicroStrategy executive remains bullish on Bitcoin -- mentions "ideal entry point"

By Elliott Wave International

Big bets on a hot financial market can be rewarding, but you know the flip side.

These sizzling markets can just as quickly severely punish because they have a way of cooling off just when nearly everyone is convinced that the market will get even hotter.

Consider MicroStrategy, a software firm which borrowed money to invest in Bitcoin.

So far, things haven't worked out so well. Here's an August 3 Marketwatch headline:

MicroStrategy racks up $1 billion loss, says CEO will leave that post

That loss was due almost entirely to its investment in Bitcoin and occurred in Q2 -- cumulatively, MicroStrategy has racked up around $2 billion in Bitcoin losses.

These losses are mentioned as an update to the January Global Market Perspective coverage (The Global Market Perspective is an Elliott Wave International monthly which provides analysis of 50-plus worldwide financial markets):

The chart shows the long-term trend in the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, MicroStrategy

Borsa di Milano in rialzo sopra 22950

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha registrato un rialzo di piu di mezzo punto  superando il livello di 22950

Borsa di Milano estende il rimbalzo e chiude a 22860

L'indice FTSE MIB ha esteso il rimbalzo di ieri ed è salito dello 0,7% a 22.860 seguendo i mercati

Borsa di Milano leggermente positiva

L'indice FTSE MIB ha esteso il rimbalzo di ieri e si è sopra il livello  di 22.750,

Borse europee in rialzo dopo dato inflazione USA in rallentamento.

 I titoli europei hanno invertito la rotta e sono saliti , con il Dax che ha guadagnato più dell'1%, seguendo il rally dei mercati statunitensi, dopo che il tasso d'inflazione in America è rallentato più del previsto a luglio, ma bisogna considerare che il ribasso è dovuto principalmente al ribasso dell energia infatti altri comparti come alimentazione resta sopra il 10% e che comunque inflazione è sempre storicamente alta....

Nel frattempo, i nuovi risultati societari continuano a offrire un certo sostegno agli investitori, ma il mercato riùane in un rimbalzo di un mercato orso....

l US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July

The annual US inflation rate slowed to 8.5% in July  from an

Borsa di Milano legermente positiva

 L'indice FTSE MIB leggermente positiva  si è portato al di sopra del livello di 22.550 , rimbalzando

Borsa di Milano in un clima di cautela

 l'indice FTSE MIB ha oscillato intorno alla linea piatta a quota 22.720, 

Severe Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%?

 

"Oftentimes, rallies will end with an inter-index non-confirmation"

By Elliott Wave International

A long-long time ago in a galaxy far away... errr, on the heels of the year 2000 dot-com crash, to be exact -- which is ancient history for many investors today -- the February 2003 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which has covered financial markets and major cultural trends since 1979, published an interview with Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter.

Future azionari a Wall Street aprono in verde

 I futures azionari statunitensi  sono saliti di circa lo 0,5% , mettendo Wall Street sulla buona strada per

Borsa Milano poco mossa

L'indice FTSE MIB sul livello di  22.600, rimbalzando leggermente dalla chiusura  di venerdì, grazie ai

Elliott Waves: Your "Rhyme & Reason" to Mainstream Market Opinions

 

R.N. Elliott's stock market observations fell together "into a general set of principles"

By Elliott Wave International

It's understandable why investors with little experience consult the market opinions of professionals.

But many of these new investors are left scratching their heads. Two headlines from July 29 indicate why:

• [Fundstrat Managing Partner] says the 2022 bear market is over, stocks could hit new highs before year-end (CNBC)
• Stock market's post-Fed bounce is a 'trap,' says Morgan Stanley's [Chief Investment Officer] (Marketwatch]

Yes, two directly opposing opinions that were published on the same day.

The date before those headlines published (July 28), happened to be Ralph Nelson Elliott's 151st birthday.

You may be interested in his discovery about stock market behavior because it offers an alternative to consulting mainstream financial stories.

Here's a brief overview: In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) discovered that the stock market moves in recurring patterns that he called waves.

Elliott had led an active life as an accountant and management consultant, working at various times for railroad companies in Mexico, Central America and South America, a business magazine, and for the State Department before becoming seriously ill with pernicious anemia.

In the book, R.N. Elliott's Masterworks, Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter describes what happened next:

Despite being physically debilitated by his malady, Elliott needed something to occupy his acute mind while recuperating between its worst attacks. ... It was around 1932 that Elliott began turning his full attention to ... finding out whether there was any rhyme or reason to the stock market. ...

Around May 1934 ... his numerous observations of general stock market behavior began falling together into a general set of principles that applied to all degrees of wave movement in the stock price averages.

Elliott's insights continue to be employed by investors today.

The basic Elliott wave pattern consists of five subwaves (denoted by numbers) which move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size and three corrective subwaves (denoted by letters) which move against the trend of the next larger size:

When this initial eight-wave cycle such as shown by the illustration ends, a similar cycle begins.

Stati Uniti, il mercato del lavoro sostenuto

 Nonostante la recessione tecnica in corso negli Stati Uniti, il mercato del lavoro sembra andare bene

US Unemployment Rate Falls to 3.5%

 The US economy added 528K jobs in July, much better than market forecasts of 250K and above an upwardly revised 398K in June.

Borsa Milano leggermente positiva

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha registrato un leggero rialzo, superando la soglia dei 22.700 ,

Will the S&P 500 Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks?

 

Here's what usually happens when "financial lunacy" is prevalent

By Elliott Wave International

You don't hear much about the meme stock craze anymore -- and for good reason.

It's all but dead and has been for months (Barron's, Jan. 28):

A Year After It Began, Meme-Stock Mania Is on Life Support

Early last year, the movement to buy meme stocks -- like AMC, Gamestop and others -- was largely driven by discussions on the internet, mainly by stock market novices.

When the movement was still going strong, the February 2021 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, made this comment about meme stocks:

A mania is pretty funny, especially at the very end, when financial lunacy is so prevalent that many assume it to be permanent.

Here's an update from the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

Boresa di Milano in verde

 L'indice FTSE MIB è in rialzo sopra la resistenza di  22.700 , 

Borsa di Milano poco mossa

 L'indice FTSE MIB si trova intorno  al livello della chiusura di ieri di 22.350,  

MIlano chiude in leggero ribasso

 Martedì l'indice FTSE MIB ha chiuso in leggero ribasso a 22.350, 

Borsa Milano in rosso

 L'indice FTSE MIB è finito  al di sotto del supporto  di  22.250 ,

 I titoli tecnologici sono stati i principalmente venduti. Anche i titoli esposti alla Cina si sono ritirati in seguito all'aumento delle tensioni geopolitiche in vista della visita del presidente della Camera degli Stati Uniti Pelosi a Taiwan, con un calo del 2,5% per Moncler. Nel frattempo, le azioni Generali hanno sottoperformato il settore finanziario e sono scese di quasi il 2%, cancellando in parte i guadagni derivanti dalla comunicazione degli utili di ieri.

Intanto I futures petrolio  Brent si sono stabilizzati intorno ai 100 dollari al barileì, dopo essere crollati di quasi il 4% nella sessione precedente, mentre gli investitori attendono con cautela l'esito della riunione dell'OPEC di mercoledì e si preoccupano della domanda globale di carburante. È probabile che il cartello petrolifero si attenga alla sua politica di modesti aumenti dell'offerta, in presenza di vincoli di capacità e di scarsi investimenti nei giacimenti petroliferi, anche dopo che il mese scorso il presidente degli Stati Uniti Joe Biden ha esortato l'Arabia Saudita a pompare più petrolio in occasione di una visita nel regno. I timori di un rallentamento globale della domanda hanno alleggerito la sperculazione a rialzo sui  mercati delle materie prime infatti  negli ultimi due mesi,i prezzi del petrolio sono scesi  di oltre il 20% rispetto ai massimi di giugno.

Borsa Milano ancora sostenuta sopra 22550

 L'indice FTSE MIB ha registrato un netto rialzo ed è salita al di sopra del livello di 22.600, 

Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse"

 

This suggests "a burgeoning slowdown in economic activity"

By Elliott Wave International

It may seem strange to bring up deflation when surveys show that inflation is the public's number one worry.

But who would have thought that inflation would become a big issue, say, just two years ago?

Right -- a relatively small percentage of people. The point is: Things can unexpectedly change -- fast.

Consider the price of commodities: The Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index hit a high on March 8, and so did the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Crude oil futures made an intraday high on March 7 and a closing high on March 8. Platinum reached a closing high on March 7.

The July Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, mentioned other commodities which also made highs during the same time as it showed this chart and said:

What a Major Indicator of "Housing Busts" is Showing Now

 

"It was the first such decline since November 2015"

By Elliott Wave International

The housing market tends to go the way of the stock market, and nearly everyone knows that the stock market has been sliding.

There's another housing market indicator that the July Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, mentioned:

[Home] sales declines invariably lead the way into housing busts. This one ... should arrive faster and more forcefully than the experts expect.

Homes sales have already begun to decline:

• U.S. existing home sales fall for third straight month; house prices at record high (Reuters, May 19)
• Sales of existing homes fell in May, and more declines are expected (CNBC, June 21)

Sales of luxury homes in some areas have dropped significantly. As examples, in Nassau County, NY, Oakland, CA, Dallas, TX, Austin, TX and West Palm Beach, FL, annual drops in the rate of upper-end home sales for the three months ended April 30 stretched from 32.8% to 45.3%.

As June numbers roll in, more signs of a real estate slowdown are evident. For instance, the number of active U.S. home listings jumped 18.7% in June from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since the data started in 2017.

The housing bubble is by no means confined to the U.S. Bloomberg reports that New Zealand, Australia and Canada look even more "frothy" than the U.S.

And, then there's China. Here's a chart and commentary from the June Global Market Perspective: