Is Trump the 'Most Pro-Stock Market President' Ever?
According to CNBC on November 11, “Trump Is the Most Pro-Stock market President in History.” “The stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration,” says the author of Stocks for the Long Run.
This belief is producing some spectacular risk-on biases. Here’s a November 22 headline from Bloomberg that highlights investors’ willingness to embrace his supposed influence on the futures markets: “Trump Set to Supercharge Options Boom by Retail Investors.”
The very idea of the dominance of the amateur investor is another classic sign of a top, as discussed in recent issues of EWFF. This chart shows the current speculative appetite for call options.
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The 50-day moving average of total U.S. call volume has soared to record highs. “Young traders are applying lessons from gaming,” says Bloomberg’s article. “‘Trump Trades’ Are on a Roll,” reported CNBC on November 10. Even before the election, The Wall Street Journal stated on October 31 that the next president “Inherits a Remarkable Economy.” In his acceptance speech, the president-elect promised a “golden age” and vowed to “fix everything.”
The wave structure of the major stock indexes and the history of the presidency suggest that everything is more likely to fall apart, including the new administration. If past correlations to the stock market are any indication, the popularity of President-elect Trump is probably as high as it will ever be. |
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