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4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid

Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades
See which data set helped traders stay in front of REGN’s late 2017-early 2018 crash

By Elliott Wave International

According to a June 26 Fortune Magazine article, New York-based bio tech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the "100 Best Places for Millennials to Work" in the world. Shares one of Regeneron's employees:
"The thing I love about working at Regeneron is that when they say data is king, they mean it. Our work and projects are always changing based on what the data shows us."
We hear the same expression bandied about Wall Street; data is king to determining a market's price trend, with the long-reigning monarch of that data being earnings reports.
All hail earnings reports? Not so fast!
Our very own senior analyst and long-reigning Trader's Classroom instructor Jeffrey Kennedy admits to the "seductive nature" of earnings data, tempting investors into a false sense of confidence regarding future price action. But there's a danger in such logic, as Jeffrey explains:
"My own experience trading earnings reports has been hit or miss. At the very least, it's been frustrating because there have been times when the earnings report will be positive, and the stock price will decline -- or vice a versa."

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Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy's free 20-minute video, "4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades." In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. Learn more now.

Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help

Learn How You can Spot a Market Trend – Before it Starts

By Elliott Wave International

Let it be stated upfront that there is no perfect way to analyze and forecast financial markets. No crystal balls.
Yet, let's be just as quick to add that in Elliott Wave International's review of market analysis methods, none approach the utility of the Elliott wave model.
The reason for the Elliott wave model's usefulness is easily explained: Elliott waves are reflections of the repetitive patterns of investor psychology, which is the real driver of prices, not news or events.
And, what could be more useful to an investor than a method which helps to identify a financial market's trend -- especially before it gets underway? Well, mastering the Elliott wave model helps you to do just that.
The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior by Frost & Prechter, says:

...action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves.

Here are illustrations:

Let's now learn how the Elliott wave model identifies countertrend moves within the main trend by returning to Elliiott Wave Principle and additional illustrations:

... reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves.

Lastly, let's learn how Elliott wave analysis signals the resumption of the main trend.
Elliott Wave International analyst Jeffrey Kennedy says:

A complete Elliott wave cycle consists of eight waves. Upon its completion, a similar cycle ensues....

Again, here are illustrations of the point:

The reason that a market's basic form is five waves followed by three waves is that this is the most efficient method of achieving both fluctuation and progress in linear movement.
Think of it as a variation of nature's "two steps forward, one step back" model of achieving progress.
After all, humans are a part of the natural world, so it only follows that the financial markets, a product of human interaction, would carry the same imprint.
As you might imagine, there are many more details in applying the Elliott Wave Principle to financial markets, and it took an entire book to lay them all out.
The purpose of this article is to simply show you that the price patterns of financial markets unfold according to a repetitive, predictable structure. Familiarity with that structure can help you determine what's next.
Jump on once-in-a-lifetime opportunities and avoid dangerous pitfalls that no one else sees coming. We can help you prepare for opportunities and side step risks that will surprise most investors. You can get deeper insights in Elliott Wave International's new free report: 5 "Tells" that the Markets Are About to Reverse. The insights that you'll gain are especially applicable to the price patterns of key financial markets, including the stock market, now.
Read the free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Trouble Spotting Market Trends? This Can Help. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Why You Should Brace Yourself for Big Financial Changes
Extrapolating current trends into the future leave many people unprepared for major societal shifts

By Elliott Wave International

The one thing you can count on in financial markets, and society at large, is change.
I was reminded of this when I read this May 18 New York Times' headline and subheadline:

The Last Days of Time Inc.

... how the pre-eminent media organization of the 20th century ended up on the scrap heap.

Time Inc. has been purchased by the Meredith Corporation, which plans to spin off Time magazine, Sports Illustrated, Fortune and Money. All four magazines have suffered from declining ad revenue and declining circulation. There are other details, but the bottom line is that an established media empire, which had a long history of reporting on change, has now been swept up by change.
A generation ago, many observers would not have imagined that a company as iconic as Time Inc. would find itself "on the scrap heap."
But linear trend extrapolation has always had its pitfalls, and on changes that have been on a much bigger scale than one media company, which brings to mind what the 2017 book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance, said:

(1) It is 1975. Project the future of China.

(2) It is 1963. Project the cost of medical care in the U.S.

(3) It is 100 A.D. Project the future of Roman civilization.

In 1975, the Communist party was entrenched in China. ... Would anyone have imagined that China's economic production, in just over a single generation, would rival that of the United States?

In 1963, medical care was cheap and accessible. ... Would anyone have guessed that [today] pills would sell for $2, $20, $200 and even $1,000 apiece?

In 100 A.D., would you have predicted that the most powerful state in the world--the Roman Empire--would be reduced to rubble in a bit over three centuries? Few people of the day imagined that outcome.

Let me add: It's June 13, 2005 -- what were many people projecting for home prices?
Well, here's a Time magazine cover which published on that date:

If that cover was an indicator, most people expected home prices to keep rising. But, we know what happened: Housing stocks topped that very year and the "subprime mortgage crisis" hit about two years later. Eventually, home prices plummeted by more than 50% in some of the nation's high-flying real estate markets. Moreover, the Dow topped in 2007 and then suffered its worst decline in 75 years:

Yes, this dramatic trend change in the Dow also took many observers by surprise.
The reason you should brace yourself for more big financial and economic changes is that EWI's analysis suggests that the next financial change will again surprise the unprepared.
We just released this new, free report, 5 'Tells' that the Markets Are About to Reverse, that reveals many false indicators – a.k.a. "head fakes" -- investors see every day. The report helps readers separate themselves from the herd and survive (and thrive) in volatile markets. Read the free report now.

How This Classic Market Theory Can Warn You of Big Turns

Dow Theory non-confirmations attend the start of every big bear market

By Elliott Wave International

Dow Theory is a time-honored market analysis tool. Its name comes from Charles H. Dow, co-founder of The Wall Street Journal.
In fact, The Wall Street Journal provided a capsule summary :

Dow Theory holds that any lasting rally to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average must be accompanied by a new high in the Dow Jones Transportation Average .... When the transport average lags, it can presage broader stock declines.

In the Wall Street classic Elliott Wave Principle, Frost and Prechter called Dow Theory the "grandfather" of the Wave Principle:

Both [the Wave Principle and Dow Theory] are based on empirical observations and complement each other in theory and practice.

Critics of the theory say it's no longer relevant. They argue that today's economy is less dependent on transportation and more on technology.
But EWI's analysts say this historical indicator is still highly useful to investors.
The Elliott Wave Theorist showed charts of two historic bear markets, and both sported dramatic Dow Theory non-confirmations. Here's the first one (N/C stands for non-confirmation):

You'll notice that in 1999-2000, the transports topped about eight months ahead of the Industrials. Starting in January 2000, the Industrials slid some 40% through October 9, 2002.

In 2007, the transport's peaked about three months before the Industrials. The 2007-2009 bear market was the worst since the Great Depression. The Dow Industrials lost 54%.
A Dow Theory non-confirmation does not accompany every stock market downturn, but the historical record shows that it does attend the start of every big bear market.
If you are prepared to take the next step in educating yourself about the basics of the Wave Principle -- access the FREE Online Tutorial from Elliott Wave International.
The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive online course with the same content you'd receive in a formal training class -- but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like!
Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline How This Classic Market Theory Can Warn You of Big Turns. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling?

Conventional Wall Street wisdom says "rising rates are bad for stocks." Let's put that belief to a test.

By Elliott Wave International

One of the big financial news stories on April 24 was that the 10-year Treasury yield hit 3% for the first time since 2014.
The other big financial news story was that the DJIA closed 424 points lower on that day.
As you probably know, the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is that investors will sell stocks in favor of bonds when yields reach an attractive level. So, it's not surprising that many pundits blamed the DJIA's triple-digit decline on rising bond yields.
Here's a sample April 24 headline along with higher bond yield warnings from the past few months:

• Here's the threat to the stock market from rising bond yields (Marketwatch, April 24)
• Rising bond yields could win next round in battle with stock market (CNBC, Feb. 7)
• How Spiking Bond Yields Could Topple a Stock Market Rally (Bloomberg, Feb. 4)

But, is the conventional wisdom that says higher bond yields will send stocks lower correct?
Well, our research reveals that there is no consistent correlation between interest rates or bond yields and the stock market.
Take a look at these charts from Robert Prechter's 2017 book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:

The book notes:

Figure 2 shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. The graphs display routs of 54% to 89%. In all four cases, interest rates fell, and in two of those cases they went all the way to zero. ... [Conversely, Figure 3 shows when stocks climbed as interest rates climbed].

[Yet,] there have been plenty of times when the stock prices rose and interest rates fell. It happened, for example, in the period from 1984 to 1987, when stock indexes more than doubled while interest rates fell by half, [as Figure 4 shows].

[Looking at Figure 5,]. there have also been times when stocks fell and interest rates rose, as in 1973-1974 when stock indexes dropped nearly in half as interest rates doubled.

So, you can see why it's folly to forecast the stock market based solely on the direction of rates. What’s more, this lack of "cause and effect" doesn't just apply to interest rates.
In fact, our research shows that there is not a single factor outside of the stock market itself that determines the trend of aggregate stock prices.
Elliott Wave Principle, the Wall Street classic book by Frost & Prechter, says:

Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own.

We call that law the Elliott Wave Principle.
If you are prepared to take the next step in educating yourself about the basics of the Wave Principle -- access the FREE Online Tutorial from Elliott Wave International.
The Elliott Wave Basic Tutorial is a 10-lesson comprehensive online course with the same content you'd receive in a formal training class -- but you can learn at your own pace and review the material as many times as you like!
Get 10 FREE Lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle that Will Change the Way You Invest Forever.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Elliott Wave

Know These 5 Core Elliott Wave Patterns – Know 80% of Chart Setups

Dear Reader,
Our friends at Elliott Wave International (EWI) often say that one of the fastest ways to learn Elliott is to test your knowledge in real markets.
So, they’ve put together 5 free, short videos where Jeffrey Kennedy, the editor of EWI’s popular service for traders seeking to improve, Trader’s Classroom, shows you 5 charts of U.S.-traded stocks -- and then...
...And then, Jeff in turn asks YOU to identify one of those 5 developing “core” Elliott wave patterns.
It’s a fun way to brush up on your Elliott or learn the basics of the method!
You’ll get a free chance at recognizing Elliott wave setups in the charts of Ferrari (RACE), Hershey (HSY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Avago Technologies (AVGO) and Disney (DIS). The charts are fresh, so you should be ready if some of your Elliott wave labeling uncovers ongoing opportunities in these stocks!
Of course, in each video Jeffrey Kennedy will also show you the correct wave labeling, so you can compare notes with an expert. Jeffrey Kennedy (MSTA, CFTe, CMT, CEWA-M), is EWI’s Senior Instructor with 25-plus years of experience as an analyst, trader and teacher. Students always comment on how committed Jeffrey is to equipping them to achieve trading success.
We think you’ll love these 5 free videos.
Are you ready for the challenge?
Start watching now - free.